Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 7

(1:24) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to HOU 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 21-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 20 for 1 yard (30-L.Pitts).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model