Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 59

Houston Texans 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

(13:49) 8-T.Daniel punts 25 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.96 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model