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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 57.0

Win Probability

ATL
41.5%
PIT
58.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.194 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.172 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ATL 24
–
PIT 26
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

ATL

Justin Bethel CB Out Knee
Grady Jarrett DT Out Ankle
Derrick Shelby DE Out Groin

PIT

Morgan Burnett S Doubtful Groin
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Doubtful Ankle
Vince Williams LB Doubtful Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 17
–
PIT 41

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:51 TD PIT (10:51) 76-C.Okorafor reported in as eligible. 30-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 00:43 TD PIT (:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – PIT 12
  • Q2 11:29 TD ATL (11:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – PIT 13
  • Q2 05:07 FG ATL (5:07) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined. ATL 10 – PIT 13
  • Q3 03:46 TD PIT (3:46) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – PIT 19
  • Q3 01:44 TD PIT (1:44) 30-J.Conner right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – PIT 26
  • Q4 12:32 TD ATL (12:32) 25-I.Smith up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – PIT 27
  • Q4 09:49 TD PIT (9:49) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – PIT 33
  • Q4 03:45 TD PIT (3:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 6 for -8 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], touched at ATL 2, RECOVERED by PIT-54-L.Fort at ATL 0. TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – PIT 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 39%

    (5:24) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to PIT 6, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-17-M.Hall. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at PIT 6.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:31) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to ATL 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 21 for 3 yards (29-B.Allen).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to ATL 11, Center-57-K.Canaday. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 11 for no gain (20-C.Sutton).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (1:50) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to PIT 45, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds. PENALTY on ATL-83-R.Gage, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 45.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (10:56) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:49) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 45-R.Nix, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by ATL-5-M.Bosher at ATL 19. 5-M.Bosher to ATL 18 for -1 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%

    (8:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 12-M.Sanu. Coverage by 24-Sensabaugh.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (4:06) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to ATL 2, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-29-B.Allen.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:14) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to ATL 38 for 5 yards (20-C.Sutton).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 85-E.Saubert to ATL 44 for 8 yards (46-M.Thomas).