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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 81

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to PIT 45, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds. PENALTY on ATL-83-R.Gage, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 45.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.91 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP