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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to ATL 11, Center-57-K.Canaday. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 11 for no gain (20-C.Sutton).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP