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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 48

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 34

What Actually Happened

(8:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 12-M.Sanu. Coverage by 24-Sensabaugh.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model