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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 41

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 85-E.Saubert to ATL 44 for 8 yards (46-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.33 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -1.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP