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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 41

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to ATL 38 for 5 yards (20-C.Sutton).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model