4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:56) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP