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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(4:06) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to ATL 2, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-29-B.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.73 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP