Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:49) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 45-R.Nix, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by ATL-5-M.Bosher at ATL 19. 5-M.Bosher to ATL 18 for -1 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model