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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:31) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to ATL 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 21 for 3 yards (29-B.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.82 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP