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Seattle Seahawks

2-2 HC Pete Carroll
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Arizona Cardinals

0-4 HC Steve Wilks
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 16:05 ET State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

SEA
61.4%
ARI
38.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SEA: Josh Rosen (ARI) -0.381 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.003 EPA/dropback (ARI starting Josh Rosen in place of Sam Bradford)
  • ARI offense: -0.226 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21 14–28
–
ARI 19 12–26
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 40

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

SEA

Rasheem Green DE Out Ankle
K.J. Wright LB Out Knee
C.J. Prosise RB Doubtful Abdomen
Ethan Pocic G Doubtful Ankle
Doug Baldwin WR Questionable Knee
Delano Hill S Questionable Hamstring
Chris Carson RB Questionable Hip
Dion Jordan DE Questionable Hip

ARI

Larry Fitzgerald WR Questionable Hamstring
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Knee
Corey Peters DT Questionable Elbow
Olsen Pierre DT Questionable Toe
Andre Smith T Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 20
–
ARI 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:18 TD SEA (6:18) (Shotgun) 27-M.Davis right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – ARI 0
  • Q2 14:08 FG ARI (14:08) 4-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. SEA 7 – ARI 3
  • Q2 01:54 TD ARI (1:54) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left tackle to SEA 1 for no gain (33-T.Thompson; 54-B.Wagner). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – ARI 9
  • Q3 05:04 FG SEA (5:04) 11-S.Janikowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – ARI 10
  • Q3 01:04 TD SEA (1:04) 27-M.Davis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – ARI 10
  • Q4 09:07 TD ARI (9:07) 3-J.Rosen pass deep left to 10-C.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-29-E.Thomas was injured during the play. SEA 17 – ARI 16
  • Q4 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 20 – ARI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 46%

    (11:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to ARI 7, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 19 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:19) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SEA 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for -6 yards (20-D.Bucannon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (4:39) 11-S.Janikowski 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (14:08) 4-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (12:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to ARI 15, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 14 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:36) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to SEA 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to ARI 48 for 18 yards (47-E.Turner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 20 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 71%

    (5:29) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 46%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at 50 for -6 yards (55-C.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (12:57) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 8 yards (47-E.Turner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 80%

    (7:15) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle to ARI 14 for 15 yards (21-P.Peterson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 17 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 90%

    (5:04) 11-S.Janikowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:31) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 19 yards (47-E.Turner). PENALTY on ARI-26-Bra.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 38.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:10) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (11:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to ARI 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 24 for no gain (28-J.Coleman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 83%

    (1:55) 4-P.Dawson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 71%

    (:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →