SEA @ ARI — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll

Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks

Sunday 2018-09-30 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

SEA

56.3%

ARI

43.7%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

ARI offense: -0.226 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
QB edge to SEA: Josh Rosen (ARI) -0.381 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.003 EPA/dropback (ARI starting Josh Rosen in place of Sam Bradford)
SEA offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
ARI defense: -0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21

–

ARI 19

Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

SEA

Rasheem Green DE Out Ankle

K.J. Wright LB Out Knee

C.J. Prosise RB Doubtful Abdomen

Ethan Pocic G Doubtful Ankle

Doug Baldwin WR Questionable Knee

Delano Hill S Questionable Hamstring

Chris Carson RB Questionable Hip

Dion Jordan DE Questionable Hip

ARI

Larry Fitzgerald WR Questionable Hamstring

Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Knee

Corey Peters DT Questionable Elbow

Olsen Pierre DT Questionable Toe

Andre Smith T Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 20

–

ARI 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:18 TD SEA (6:18) (Shotgun) 27-M.Davis right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – ARI 0
Q2 14:08 FG ARI (14:08) 4-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. SEA 7 – ARI 3
Q2 01:54 TD ARI (1:54) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left tackle to SEA 1 for no gain (33-T.Thompson; 54-B.Wagner). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – ARI 9
Q3 05:04 FG SEA (5:04) 11-S.Janikowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – ARI 10
Q3 01:04 TD SEA (1:04) 27-M.Davis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – ARI 10
Q4 09:07 TD ARI (9:07) 3-J.Rosen pass deep left to 10-C.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-29-E.Thomas was injured during the play. SEA 17 – ARI 16
Q4 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 20 – ARI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 44

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 46%

(11:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to ARI 7, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.
Q1 ARI 4th & 19 at the 91

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24%

(9:19) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SEA 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for -6 yards (20-D.Bucannon).
Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

(4:39) 11-S.Janikowski 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

(14:08) 4-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 65

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP

p(convert) 68%

(12:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to ARI 15, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.
Q2 ARI 4th & 14 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(9:36) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to SEA 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to ARI 48 for 18 yards (47-E.Turner).
Q2 SEA 4th & 20 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 19% p(FG) 71%

(5:29) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 44

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 46%

(:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at 50 for -6 yards (55-C.Jones).
Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP

p(convert) 67%

(12:57) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 8 yards (47-E.Turner).
Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 29

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 80%

(7:15) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle to ARI 14 for 15 yards (21-P.Peterson).
Q3 SEA 4th & 17 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 20% p(FG) 90%

(5:04) 11-S.Janikowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(3:31) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 19 yards (47-E.Turner). PENALTY on ARI-26-Bra.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 38.
Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(14:10) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 56

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP

p(convert) 67%

(11:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51%

(7:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to ARI 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 24 for no gain (28-J.Coleman).
Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 27 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 83%

(1:55) 4-P.Dawson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 34 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 71%

(:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.