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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 4-P.Dawson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.48 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model