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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 8 yards (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP