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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to ARI 15, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.77 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP