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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 11-S.Janikowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model