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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 19 yards (47-E.Turner). PENALTY on ARI-26-Bra.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model