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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(7:15) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle to ARI 14 for 15 yards (21-P.Peterson).

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model