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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.37 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model