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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 4

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 4-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.48 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP