4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 20

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 11-S.Janikowski 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.68 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model