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New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2018-09-23 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NYG
39.3%
HOU
60.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.154 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NYG

Eli Apple CB Out Groin
Olivier Vernon LB Out Ankle

HOU

Kayvon Webster CB Out Achilles
Sammie Coates WR Questionable Hamstring
Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Thomas TE Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 27
–
HOU 22

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:13 FG HOU (10:13) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. NYG 0 – HOU 3
  • Q1 04:17 TD NYG (4:17) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – HOU 3
  • Q2 11:53 FG NYG (11:53) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 10 – HOU 3
  • Q2 04:38 FG NYG (4:38) 2-A.Rosas 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 13 – HOU 3
  • Q2 01:24 TD NYG (1:24) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 85-R.Ellison for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – HOU 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG HOU (:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. NYG 20 – HOU 6
  • Q3 08:46 FG HOU (8:46) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. NYG 20 – HOU 9
  • Q4 07:43 TD HOU (7:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 15-W.Fuller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – HOU 15
  • Q4 02:13 TD NYG (2:13) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – HOU 15
  • Q4 00:10 TD HOU (:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 26-L.Miller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-23-B.Webb, Defensive Holding, declined. NYG 27 – HOU 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (10:13) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:14) 8-T.Daniel punts 57 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-S.Coley MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 16.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 84%

    (11:53) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:46) 8-T.Daniel punts 56 yards to NYG 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-S.Coley to NYG 24 for 6 yards (20-J.Reid).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (4:38) 2-A.Rosas 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:21) 8-T.Daniel punts 42 yards to NYG 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-S.Coley.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to HOU 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-57-N.Stupar. The Ball was touched on the punt.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 68%

    (8:46) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (5:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to HOU 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 45 for 27 yards (82-S.Simonson).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to HOU 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 39 for 8 yards (35-C.Riley).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 19 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (11:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to HOU 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 33 for 10 yards (57-N.Stupar).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller to HOU 43 for 16 yards (23-B.Webb).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 26-L.Miller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-23-B.Webb, Defensive Holding, declined.