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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 12

New York Giants 10 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 2-A.Rosas 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model