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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 73

Houston Texans 15 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller to HOU 43 for 16 yards (23-B.Webb).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP