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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 5

Houston Texans 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 7-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model