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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 71

New York Giants 20 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to HOU 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 45 for 27 yards (82-S.Simonson).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.22 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model