Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 76

New York Giants 20 – Houston Texans 9

(11:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to HOU 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 33 for 10 yards (57-N.Stupar).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.08 EP
76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model