Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 74

Houston Texans 3 – New York Giants 10

(10:46) 8-T.Daniel punts 56 yards to NYG 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-S.Coley to NYG 24 for 6 yards (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model