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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 3 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 8-T.Daniel punts 42 yards to NYG 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-S.Coley.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model