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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 72

Houston Texans 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 8-T.Daniel punts 57 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-S.Coley MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.80 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model