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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2018-09-23 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

GB
38.5%
WAS
61.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.181 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Alex Smith (WAS) +0.125 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.170 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
WAS 24
Projected margin: WAS by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

GB

Kevin King CB Out Groin
Aaron Rodgers QB Questionable Knee
Oren Burks LB Questionable Shoulder
Davon House CB Questionable Biceps
Josh Jones S Questionable Ankle

WAS

Troy Apke S Out Hamstring
Shawn Lauvao G Out Calf
Maurice Harris WR Questionable Concussion
Zach Brown LB Questionable Oblique
Paul Richardson WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 17
–
WAS 31

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:02 TD WAS (13:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 10-P.Richardson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 02:16 TD WAS (2:16) 52-R.Anderson reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – WAS 13
  • Q2 12:56 FG GB (12:56) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 3 – WAS 14
  • Q2 04:30 TD WAS (4:30) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – WAS 20
  • Q2 02:24 TD GB (2:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 81-G.Allison for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – WAS 21
  • Q2 00:28 TD WAS (:28) 52-R.Anderson reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. GB 10 – WAS 27
  • Q3 08:02 TD GB (8:02) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. GB 16 – WAS 28
  • Q4 02:00 FG WAS (2:00) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. GB 17 – WAS 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:49) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to WAS 22, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:03) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to GB 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-R.Cobb pushed ob at GB 33 for 5 yards (40-J.Harvey-Clemons). PENALTY on GB-35-J.Whitehead, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 33.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:26) 6-J.Scott punts 49 yards to WAS 21, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 87%

    (12:56) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 44%

    (7:49) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to WAS 2, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-83-M.Valdes-Scantling.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:46) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to GB 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-R.Cobb to GB 32 for 11 yards (22-D.Everett, 48-K.Ladler).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 44%

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 18-R.Cobb to WAS 40 for 3 yards (40-J.Harvey-Clemons). Washington challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 16 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 39%

    (14:43) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to GB 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:38) 6-J.Scott punts 58 yards to WAS 26, Center-43-H.Bradley. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 35 for 9 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:24) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to GB 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-R.Cobb to GB 20 for 10 yards (51-S.Hamilton). PENALTY on GB-31-D.House, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:33) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to WAS 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:06) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to GB 39, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-R.Cobb to GB 42 for 3 yards (48-K.Ladler).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (2:00) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.