Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 78

Washington Commanders 28 – Green Bay Packers 17

(5:46) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to GB 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-R.Cobb to GB 32 for 11 yards (22-D.Everett, 48-K.Ladler).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.35 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model