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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 17 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to WAS 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.37 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model