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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 17

Washington Commanders 28 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model