Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 84

Washington Commanders 28 – Green Bay Packers 17

(6:06) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to GB 39, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-R.Cobb to GB 42 for 3 yards (48-K.Ladler).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.65 EP
58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model