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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to WAS 22, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.97 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model