Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 65

Washington Commanders 28 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to GB 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-R.Cobb to GB 20 for 10 yards (51-S.Hamilton). PENALTY on GB-31-D.House, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model