4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 45

Washington Commanders 28 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:43) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to GB 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model