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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 17 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 6-J.Scott punts 58 yards to WAS 26, Center-43-H.Bradley. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 35 for 9 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model