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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 3 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to WAS 2, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-83-M.Valdes-Scantling.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.80 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model