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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Monday 2018-09-17 · 20:15 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

SEA
44.2%
CHI
55.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Mitch Trubisky (CHI): -0.095 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI defense: -0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SEA

Doug Baldwin WR Out Knee
Bobby Wagner LB Out Groin
K.J. Wright LB Out Knee
Tre Flowers CB Doubtful Hamstring
D.J. Fluker G Doubtful Hamstring
Delano Hill S Doubtful Hamstring
Shaquill Griffin CB Questionable Thigh

CHI

DeAndre Houston-Carson S Out Forearm

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 17
–
CHI 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:59 TD CHI (4:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 80-T.Burton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 01:11 FG CHI (1:11) 1-C.Parkey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. SEA 0 – CHI 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG SEA (:02) 11-S.Janikowski 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – CHI 10
  • Q4 14:20 TD CHI (14:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 17-A.Miller for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – CHI 16
  • Q4 10:19 TD SEA (10:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – CHI 17
  • Q4 06:47 TD CHI (6:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 20-R.Penny INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Amukamara at SEA 49. 20-P.Amukamara for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – CHI 23
  • Q4 00:18 TD SEA (:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-W.Dissly for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – CHI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 44%

    (10:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to CHI 4, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to CHI 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 39 for 32 yards (28-J.Coleman).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 26%

    (1:52) 24-J.Howard left tackle to 50 for 2 yards (55-F.Clark).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 42%

    (14:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to SEA 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 14 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:07) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to CHI 38, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:59) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to CHI 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 33 for 15 yards (87-D.Daniels).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (1:11) 1-C.Parkey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 60%

    (:02) 11-S.Janikowski 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (11:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to SEA 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 31 for 14 yards (15-J.Bellamy).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to CHI 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 23 for 7 yards (49-SM.Griffin).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 30%

    (6:43) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to SEA 8, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to CHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott. 29-T.Cohen to SEA 48 for 12 yards (38-T.Madden). PENALTY on CHI-20-P.Amukamara, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 44.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:43) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to SEA 35, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 60%

    (2:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to SEA 1, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.