Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Chicago Bears 7

(3:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to CHI 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 39 for 32 yards (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model