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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 45

Chicago Bears 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to SEA 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.46 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model