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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 7

Chicago Bears 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 1-C.Parkey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 7, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model