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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to CHI 4, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.86 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP