Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 52
Chicago Bears 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0
What Actually Happened
(1:52) 24-J.Howard left tackle to 50 for 2 yards (55-F.Clark).
The Three Options
GO
+1.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK
-1.30 EP
- 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
- 74% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT
-0.25 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
