Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 93

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to CHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott. 29-T.Cohen to SEA 48 for 12 yards (38-T.Madden). PENALTY on CHI-20-P.Amukamara, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.60 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.08 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 93, worth -5.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model