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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 38

Chicago Bears 24 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to SEA 1, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.38 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP