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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

HOU
44.8%
TEN
55.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Blaine Gabbert (TEN): -0.242 EPA/dropback in prior starts (TEN starting Blaine Gabbert in place of Marcus Mariota)
  • TEN offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 18
–
TEN 20
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

HOU

Kayvon Webster CB Out Achilles
Johnson Bademosi CB Questionable Knee
Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Back
Sammie Coates WR Questionable Hamstring
Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Christian Covington DE Questionable Thigh
Duke Ejiofor LB Questionable Hamstring
Will Fuller WR Questionable Hamstring
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Foot

TEN

Taylor Lewan T Out Concussion
Kendrick Lewis S Out Foot
Jack Conklin T Out Knee
Dennis Kelly T Questionable Illness
Harold Landry LB Questionable Ankle
Marcus Mariota QB Questionable right Elbow
Derrick Morgan LB Questionable Knee
Luke Stocker TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 17
–
TEN 20

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:00 TD TEN (10:00) (Punt formation) 31-K.Byard pass deep right to 29-D.Cruikshank for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 00:43 TD TEN (:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass short left to 13-T.Taylor for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – TEN 13
  • Q2 01:08 TD HOU (1:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – TEN 14
  • Q3 02:44 FG HOU (2:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 10 – TEN 14
  • Q4 13:32 TD HOU (13:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – TEN 14
  • Q4 09:48 FG TEN (9:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. HOU 17 – TEN 17
  • Q4 01:05 FG TEN (1:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. HOU 17 – TEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:17) (Punt formation) 8-T.Daniel punts 53 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 16 for 2 yards (52-B.Peters; 41-Z.Cunningham). TEN-32-D.Fluellen was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:00) (Punt formation) 31-K.Byard pass deep right to 29-D.Cruikshank for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 58%

    (5:16) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:06) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to HOU 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 24 for 13 yards (41-B.Trawick). PENALTY on HOU-43-S.Wright, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 22.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:43) (Punt formation) 8-T.Daniel punts 47 yards to TEN 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson. PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Butler, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 32.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:47) 7-B.Gabbert up the middle to TEN 32 for 1 yard (97-A.Blackson).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to HOU 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-31-N.Jamerson, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at HOU 7.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 14 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 52%

    (8:27) (Punt formation) 8-T.Daniel punts 27 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-52-B.Peters. PENALTY on TEN-99-J.Casey, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TEN 11.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to HOU 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 48 for 9 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (2:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to HOU 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 30 for -1 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%

    (9:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (6:50) (Punt formation) 8-T.Daniel punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. PENALTY on HOU-23-J.Bademosi, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 95%

    (1:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.